The crisis of 2005 -- the role of U.S. Naval Forward presence in the evolution of relations between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China

Abstract

This thesis assesses the potential of U.S. Naval Forward Presence in the Western Pacific to stabilize economic markets around the world in the event of a crisis in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits. It utilizes a scenario analogous to that of the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait crisis that it sets in the year 2005. The scenario utilizes existing military, political and economic conditions in the region to forecast likely behavior of the main actors. The thesis concludes that U.S. Naval Forward Presence is the vital ingredient to protect U.S. interests in the region, discourage crisis escalation, and stabilize world oil and financial markets.