An Army Reserve Manpower Planning model

Abstract

Because of the expected shortages in its Active Guard and Reserve (AGR) program, the Army Reserve is considering two manpower policy changes. One is the use of Position Vacancy Promotions (PVP) and the other is to allow more officers to serve beyond 20 years of Active Federal Service (AFS). To evaluate the impact of these policy changes, either individually or in combination, on alleviating the shortages, this thesis develops the Army Reserve Manpower Planning model (ARMP). ARMP is an optimization model that determines the annual numbers of accessions, promotions, and separations that best meet the authorized inventory targets. Results from ARMP suggests that a combination of extension of the AFS requirement and allowing PVP can nearly eliminate the shortage in the near future if implemented immediately. ARMP is also useful for managing the AGR officer force.