Determination of the timeline for U.S. Army aviation systems to reach operational obsolescence following termination of modernization funding
Dupree, Ron D.
Olwell, David H.
Paulo, Eugene P.
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Identifying, countering, andpreventing operational obsolescence is a challenging but vital task for personnel involved in the design, acquisition and support of military equipment. In this thesis, I define the concept of operational obsolescence and show quantitative relationships between modernization funding timelines and operational obsolescence. Only if we truly understand obsolescence can we best combat its onset and effects. I use example data from both legacy and current Army Aviation Systems to draw conclusions about the impacts of particular modernization timelines on the various forms of obsolescence that cause operational obsolescence. I then make recommendations concerning the optimal modernization strategies for current and future aviation systems in order to facilitate the Army's ability to field and sustain the most tactically and logistically superior weapon systems possible. Using first principles, I construct Life Models based on hazard functions for each of the different forms of obsolescence. I then combine these models into an overall model, and discuss the design of a data system to estimate model parameters.
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