A New Learning Curve for Department of Defense Acquisition Programs: How to Account for the "Flattening Effect" [video]
Authors
Elshaw, John
Koschnick, Clay
Hogan, Dakotah
Ritschel, Jonathan
Badiru, Adedeji B.
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2021-05-19
Date
05/19/21
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Traditional learning curve theory assumes a constant learning rate regardless of the number of units produced; however, a collection of theoretical and empirical evidence indicates that learning rates decrease as more units are produced in some cases. These diminishing learning rates cause traditional learning curves to underestimate required resources, potentially resulting in cost overruns. A diminishing learning rate model, Boone's Learning Curve (2018), was recently developed to model this phenomenon. This research confirmed that Boone's Learning Curve is more accurate in modeling observed learning curves using production data of 169 Department of Defense (DoD) end-items. However, further empirical analysis revealed deficiencies in the theoretical justifications of why and under what conditions Boone's Learning Curve more accurately models observations. This research also discovered that diminishing learning rates are present but not pervasive in the sampled observations. Additionally, this research explored the theoretical and empirical evidence that may cause learning curves to exhibit diminishing learning rates and be more accurately modeled by Boone's Learning Curve. Only a limited number of theory-based variables were useful in explaining these phenomena. This research further justifies the necessity of a diminishing learning rate model and proposes a framework to investigate learning curves that exhibit diminishing learning rates.
Type
Video
Presentation
Presentation
Description
A video presentation with accompanying slides.
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
SYM-AM-21-212
SYM-AM-21-127
SYM-AM-21-127
Sponsors
Prepared for the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943.
Naval Postgraduate School
Naval Postgraduate School
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.