Investigation of the sensitivity of a patrolling submarine's capability to gain a detection as a function of increasing surface ship speeds
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Authors
Cyr, Joseph Henry
Santos, Leonard Bento
Subjects
Advisors
Cunningham, Peyton W.
Pollock, Stephen M.
Date of Issue
1969
Date
October 1969
Publisher
U.S. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
Numerical integration and Monte Carlo techniques are
used in the development of several models in order to
determine the effect on probability of random detection
of a merchant ship using speeds up to 90 knots by a 10
knot submarine patrolling a back-and-forth barrier. A
definite range law for detection is assumed. Individual
encounter models are developed for ship tracks which cross
the midpoint of the submarine patrol line at various angles.
The models are extended to include the assumption of a
normal-distribution of crossing points. Computer programs
of the models, written in the FORTRAN IV language, are included.
The results are applied in a numerical example.
It is concluded that while increases in ship speeds do
result in a substantial decrease in probability of detection
by a submarine in the case of a single barrier transit, a
speed advantage alone when applied to a typical transit of
the North Atlantic will not appreciably decrease the overall
detection probability.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Operations Analysis
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.