Investigation of the sensitivity of a patrolling submarine's capability to gain a detection as a function of increasing surface ship speeds

Abstract

Numerical integration and Monte Carlo techniques are used in the development of several models in order to determine the effect on probability of random detection of a merchant ship using speeds up to 90 knots by a 10 knot submarine patrolling a back-and-forth barrier. A definite range law for detection is assumed. Individual encounter models are developed for ship tracks which cross the midpoint of the submarine patrol line at various angles. The models are extended to include the assumption of a normal-distribution of crossing points. Computer programs of the models, written in the FORTRAN IV language, are included. The results are applied in a numerical example. It is concluded that while increases in ship speeds do result in a substantial decrease in probability of detection by a submarine in the case of a single barrier transit, a speed advantage alone when applied to a typical transit of the North Atlantic will not appreciably decrease the overall detection probability.