Analysis of a long-range environmental forecasting model
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Author
Alvarez, Everett, Jr.
Date
1976-12Advisor
Sovereign, M.G.
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
This thesis describes long-range forecasting models
that were developed for the Middle East, Latin America,
and Africa to cope with the problem of projecting important
economic, political, military, and social variables over a
five to twenty year range.
On the basis of imperfect data that is available for
these regions, this study examines the innovations introduced
to handle the unstable situations found in developing
areas of the world. Limited to the Middle East region,
this effort undertakes a restructuring of the data base,
introduces new scaling techniques for social and political
concepts, and imposes a rigorous statistical analysis
through different econometric techniques.
Utilizing new estimated regression coefficients, a
forecast simulation for several Middle East countries
follows along with concluding analyses and a discussion of
inherent problems present in the model.
Description
Cmdr. Alvarez was inducted into the NPS Hall of Fame on March 27, 2015.