Error Patterns from Alternative Cost Progress Models
Moses, O. Douglas
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Numerous cost progress models have been offered in the literature and used in practice. This paper selects five cost progress models which predict future cost using various combinations of three factors (past cost, cumulative quantity, and production rate), and investigates the forecast accuracy of the models under varying circumstances. The broad objectives are to (1) identity conditions which may affect model accuracy, documenting the manner in which forecast errors for each model depend on those conditions, and (2) suggest which of the five models may be more or less accurate under a given set of conditions. Particular attention is paid to how model accuracy is affected by one specific condition - changes in production rate.
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NPS Report NumberNPS-AS-93-025
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