Error Patterns from Alternative Cost Progress Models
Moses, O. Douglas
MetadataShow full item record
Numerous cost progress models have been offered in the literature and used in practice. This paper selects five cost progress models which predict future cost using various combinations of three factors (past cost, cumulative quantity, and production rate), and investigates the forecast accuracy of the models under varying circumstances. The broad objectives are to (1) identity conditions which may affect model accuracy, documenting the manner in which forecast errors for each model depend on those conditions, and (2) suggest which of the five models may be more or less accurate under a given set of conditions. Particular attention is paid to how model accuracy is affected by one specific condition - changes in production rate.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
NPS Report NumberNPS-AS-93-025
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Buss, Arnold (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School., 2004);A recurring dilemma in the use of simulation models for analytic support of decision-making has been the length of time required to build the simulation model. Although emerging simulations have improved over legacy models, ...
Taylor, Ian (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2017-09);This research presents the first accurate three and six Degree of Freedom (DOF) models of the small diameter REMUS 100 with cross-tunnel thrusters (CTT). These are the first known hydrodynamic models to explicitly consider ...
Chatzigeorgiadis, Filippos (Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2006-09);The significance of the Radar Cross Section (RCS) in the outcome of military engagements makes its prediction an important problem in modern Electronic Warfare. The POFACETS program, previously developed at the Naval ...