Error Patterns from Alternative Cost Progress Models
Abstract
Numerous cost progress models have been offered in the literature and used in practice. This paper selects five cost progress models which predict future cost using various combinations of three factors (past cost, cumulative quantity, and production rate), and investigates the forecast accuracy of the models under varying circumstances. The broad objectives are to (1) identity conditions which may affect model accuracy, documenting the manner in which forecast errors for each model depend on those conditions, and (2) suggest which of the five models may be more or less accurate under a given set of conditions. Particular attention is paid to how model accuracy is affected by one specific condition - changes in production rate.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.NPS Report Number
NPS-AS-93-025Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Cyber System Assurance through Improved Network Anomaly Modeling and Detection
Bollmann, Chad A. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate SchoolMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2019-12); NPS-19-N039-AThe objectives of this work were to investigate the source of the dual natures of network traffic (i.e., Gaussian and alpha-stable) in order prove the merit of further development, improvement, and application of non-parametric ... -
Cyber System Assurance through Improved Network Anomaly Modeling and Detection
Bollmann, Chad A. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate SchoolMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2019-12); NPS-19-N039-AThe objectives of this work were to investigate the source of the dual natures of network traffic (i.e., Gaussian and alpha-stable) in order prove the merit of further development, improvement, and application of non-parametric ... -
Simkit Analysis Workbench for Rapid Construction of Modeling and Simulation Components
Buss, Arnold (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School., 2004);A recurring dilemma in the use of simulation models for analytic support of decision-making has been the length of time required to build the simulation model. Although emerging simulations have improved over legacy models, ...