Systems analysis and modeling of U.S. submarine repair Operational Target (OPTAR) processes

Abstract

This work performed a systems level analysis of Submarine repair budgeting and spending in an effort to articulate the unique behaviors of this combined system of budgeting, supply chain management, and spending control. Current Navy policies, procedures, and budget forecast methods were studied to develop the basic causal relationships of the budgeting and spending behavior in order to develop a basic model of the system. The effects of feedback and delays inherent in the system structure were analyzed to determine overall system amplification and oscillation potential in spending behavior is possible given various changes to inputs. Observations over spending data recorded from 1996 to 2006 for the submarine force are analyzed against the knowledge of the system dynamics to determine if this real behavior can be successfully reconstructed in the model.