The applicability of COSMOS to the development of the submarine radioman career model

Abstract

The thesis consists of two parts, a flow model and a data analysis section. The flow model is used to lay out the career path of an enlisted Navy radioman from accession (E-1) until the point he becomes a United States Navy Chief Petty Officer (E-7). This is the first time enlisted flows have modeled. Part two of this thesis is the analysis of enlisted radioman data from October 1998 until September 2007. The data set was compiled from the Proxy Perstempo file maintained by the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) containing monthly information on all active component personnel in the Navy. We can conclude that demographic variables are not good predictors for individuals' promotion to E-7. Nevertheless, according to the Clementine software, MAX.EDU seems to be the strongest non-demographic variable. This result is analogous to the promotion parameters used to calculate the Final Multiplication Score (FMS). In the FMS computation, education can account for up to 2% of the total score. The use of this model will allow for the implementation in simulation software and the creation of the first Enlisted Career Guide Book.