Starting point: a proposed framework for unconventional warfare planning

Abstract

Policy makers and military strategists should understand how to effect regime change in an unconventional warfare (UW) environment. With this understanding, campaign and operational strategies can be more accurately formulated. This thesis uses four historical case studies where successful regime change was implemented through UW and draws conclusions about essential components that can be used for future planning. A UW planning framework was developed, which consists of planning considerations, lines of effort and insurgent imperatives for success. The planning considerations that must be understood are the nature, strengths and vulnerabilities of the target regime, the level of insurgent influence and social ties to the population. The four critical lines of effort for planning and executing UW with the goal of regime change were identified as: psychological operations, intelligence operations, disruption operations and logistical support. These four lines of effort are effective at fostering the insurgent imperatives that are highly correlated with success: motivation and commitment, tangible support, flexibility and adaptability.