Geographic profiling: knowledge through prediction

Abstract

For years it has been the goal of the Intelligence Community to limit sharply or even put a stop to terrorism, be it through the prevention of attacks or apprehension of those seeking to commit such acts. While there has been some success, perhaps further progress could be made by incorporating techniques used by law enforcement into the intelligence process. Geographic profiling has been used successfully by law enforcement agencies to aid in the capture of serial criminals, and due to the similarities between the two, it is possible that geographic profiling could do the same against terrorists. In the case of the Abu Sayyaf Group in the southern islands of Sulu and Basilan in the Philippines, geographic profiling techniques were partially successful in highlighting the possible future locations or types of incidents that would next be committed by the group. The success was limited, but while it may not be the next great breakthrough in the prevention of terrorist attacks, it appears to be another layer of analysis that can be incorporated in the intelligence cycle.