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dc.contributor.advisorBarma, Naazneen
dc.contributor.authorCook, Damon J.
dc.dateDec-14
dc.date.accessioned2015-02-18T00:17:25Z
dc.date.available2015-02-18T00:17:25Z
dc.date.issued2014-12
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/44541
dc.descriptionApproved for public release; distribution is unlimiteden_US
dc.description.abstractThis thesis investigates the feasibility of China’s transforming to a consumption-led economy. Specifically, it seeks to determine whether China is destined to be caught in the middle income trap, whereby it fails to graduate to high-income status, and thus is trapped in an economic state of equilibrium that is very difficult to change with short-term forces. To investigate this question, this thesis compares China’s economic development with the economic trajectories of South Korea and Malaysia, which have experienced similar economic growth pressures, to assess the likelihood that China’s growth will stagnate over the near to middle term. To do so, this thesis will examine the effect of rule of law, education, and demographics on economic growth. Given China’s rapid economic ascent based on its export-led and investment-dependent economy, the evidence suggests China’s economic growth is decreasing despite popular belief China is on a trajectory to overtake the United States as the world’s top economy. Although the Chinese Communist Party has slowly implemented phased economic reform since the Deng Xiaoping era, it still lacks many institutions necessary to transform into a consumption-led economy. This thesis concludes with a scorecard analysis that will provide insight into China’s economic future.en_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/willchinbecaught1094544541
dc.publisherMonterey, California: Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.titleWill China be caught in the middle-income trap? the economic path of South Korea and Malaysia may help provide the answeren_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.secondreaderLooney, Robert
dc.contributor.departmentNational Security Affairs
dc.subject.authorMiddle-income trapen_US
dc.subject.authorChinaen_US
dc.subject.authorSouth Koreaen_US
dc.subject.authorMalaysiaen_US
dc.subject.authorRule of Lawen_US
dc.subject.authorCorruptionen_US
dc.subject.authorProperty Rightsen_US
dc.subject.authorEducationen_US
dc.subject.authorDemographyen_US
dc.subject.authorTotal Factor Productivityen_US
dc.description.serviceLieutenant Commander, United States Navyen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameMaster of Arts in Security Studies (Far East, Southeast Asia, The Pacific)en_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineSecurity Studies (Far East, Southeast Asia, The Pacific)en_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US


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