LONG-RANGE PREDICTION OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS AFFECTING NAVAL OPERATIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS)
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Author
Hardie, Matthew K.
Date
2021-12Advisor
Murphree, Tom
Hutchins, Megan, FNMOC
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During each winter, the South China Sea (SCS) experiences strong northerly winds associated with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). However, the intensity of the winds varies from year to year. In our study, we investigated the regional and global scale oceanic and atmospheric factors that trigger and contribute to these wind variations in the SCS. We found that SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific and SLP anomalies along coastal China and the Maritime Continent are major contributors to SCS winds. We also determined how wind variations in the SCS influence oceanic and atmospheric variables relevant to the U.S. Navy. We then developed and tested two long-range forecasting methods to predict the SCS wind variations at subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) lead times. We determined that both methods show high forecasting skill at two- to five-month time leads, which greatly improves long-range planning for operations in the SCS. Furthermore, we analyzed the influence of climate change on cool and warm events in the SCS (e.g., their intensity and frequency.) We determined that the overall strength of the northerly winds in the SCS has decreased over the past 52 years.
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