Analysis of the survival patterns of United States naval officers

Abstract

The goal of this thesis is to identify and quantitatively evaluate the factors, especially commissioning source, that affect the longevity of officers in the U.S. Navy. To reach this goal, a survival analysis is conducted on the survival patterns of officer cohorts who entered the service between the years 1983 and 1990. Using data created from Navy Officer Data Card information and annual promotion board results, three survival analysis procedures, LIFETEST, LIFEREG and PHREG were used to examine the factors that influence the survival of U.S. Naval Officers. The results of the survival analysis indicate that commissioning source has significant strong effect on survival rates with Naval Academy graduates have a better survival rate than other commissioning sources. Also, the analysis show that females and African-Americans have better survival rates than males and whites, respectively, and prior enlisted, older, graduates from non-selective colleges have higher survival rates than their counterparts. Additionally, Surface Warfare, Fleet Support and Supply Corps officers were found to have lower survival rates than officers in other communities. When survival functions for involuntary and voluntary separations were analyzed separately, the results were found different. Commissioning age, being African- American, single with children, commissioned from NROTC Contract Program, commissioned from OTHERSOURCE, being prior enlisted, having high GPAs and designated in AIR community had significant, negative effects on involuntary separations and significant positive effects on voluntary separations.