On choosing a family of probability distributions for lead time demand
Richards, Francis Russell
Thomas, Marlin Uluess
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The problem of selecting an appropriate family of probability distributions to be used in the procedures for forecasting future demands is examined. Using the principle of maximum entropy and other practical considerations, the gamma family is shown to result from conditions typical of those in the Naval Supply System. On considering other decision criteria based on measures of supply effectiveness, the gamma family is shown to be superior to the family of distribution presently in use
NPS Report NumberNPS-55Rh74021
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