Submarine approach and attack tactics: simulation and analysis

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to assess the probability of a diesel submarine's successful attack when using bearings-only Target Motion Analysis (TMA) while approaching a surface target. Four different approach tactics are examined: POINT LEAD - POINT, POINT - LEAD - LAG, POINT - LAG - LEAD and POINT - LAG - POINT. The submarine approach problem addressed in this thesis was solved using Monte Carlo simulation. Each simulation run includes 1,000 replications for each combination of submarine speed, target speed and tactic. Each replication starts by specifying initial conditions for the target and submarine. Then the submarine's approach phase is simulated, consisting of three legs (TMA maneuvers) during which the submarine computes the target speed, course and range. The simulation continues with the attack phase, where the submarine decides if a torpedo can reach the target. Finally the success or failure of the attack is determined. The number of successful attacks in each simulation is a measure of effectiveness of the particular tactic. The simulation shows that the tactic which maximizes the probability of successful attack is Point-Lead-Point, but possibly other considerations not captured in the simulation model would recommend a different tactic choice. Due to the variety' of arbitrar' tactical assumptions, the principal contribution of this thesis is a representative simulation analysis. Specific tactical conclusions are likely to be misleading and are not recommended for actual use.