Validation of rational deterrence theory : analysis of U.S. government and adversary risk propensity and relative emphasis on gain or loss

Abstract

This thesis develops a rational deterrence case study risk elicitation framework to assess the risk propensity and relative emphasis on loss/gain of the U.S. and various adversaries involved in historical and current deterrence games. This framework is used to elicit qualitative historical information that supports a notional Deterrence Efficacy Model. This qualitative approach is further supported by a basic game-theoretic approach predicting the efficacy of deterrence given certain actor risk profiles. Recommendations as to the efficacy of deterrence for current U.S. national security threats are offered using the proposed Deterrence Efficacy Model, quantitative framework, and supporting methodology.