An exploratory analysis on the effects of information superiority on battle outcomes

Abstract

Visions of future warfighting, such as Joint Vision 2020, emphasize using new technologies to obtain and exploit information advantages to achieve new levels of effectiveness in joint warfighting. Unfortunately, our warfighting models are notoriously poor at capturing the effects of information on battle outcomes. Moreover, traditional measures of effectiveness (MOEs) usually ignore the effects of information and decision making on battle outcomes. The Department of the Navy and other DoD organizations have tasked RAND to create a framework for developing measures and metrics to assess the impact of C4ISR systems and procedures on battle outcomes. In order to quantify the effects of information and decision making on battle outcomes, RAND built a deterministic model and hypothesized a scenario involving the search for, and destruction of, a time-critical target (TCT). This thesis extends their work by making the simulation stochastic and exploring practical issues such as: (i) the effects of improved C4ISR systems and procedures on battle outcomes; (ii) which messaging and data processing delay reductions give the greatest improvements in kill probability; (iii) which command and control architecture provides the highest kill probability.