Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part III : updated environmental structure characteristics
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Author
Reader, Grahame
Boothe, Mark A.
Elsberry, Russell L.
Carr, Lester E. III
Date
1999-09Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
The Meteorological knowledge base of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Southern
Hemisphere has been updated to reflect a more global terminology. Examples of these new environment structures in operational (NOGAPS)
analyses and tracks are given. Perhaps the most important conclusion is that all cases in the 1990-91 through 1998-1999 seasons could be
classified into one of these 14 synoptic pattern/region combinations. The nine-year "climatology" of the occurrences of each ofthe 14
combinations is given for the South Indian and Pacific Oceans separately, and the characteristic tracks in each of these 14 combinations are
provided. Some new transitional mechanisms between these combinations have also been defined. The importance of these transitions from one
pattern/region combinations to another is that the TC track then also changes. The frequency of recurring (greater than three) transitions in this
nine-year sample is summarized. Because the TC is at any time in only one pattern/region combination, the concern of the forecaster is on the
possible transitions from that pattern/region. To assist the forecaster, the percentages of these transitions from each pattern/region combination are
also summarized. Some ofthese transitions are clearly more favored than others, which is useful guidance to the forecaster.
Description
The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense.
NPS Report Number
NPS-MR-99-004Collections
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