Probability models for battle damage assessment (simple shoot-look-shoot and beyond)
Gaver, Donald Paul
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In spite of the precision of modern weaponry and sensor/communication systems, shots fired at targets do occasionally miss (or cause only partial damage). Consequently a sequence of more than one shot may be directed at a particular target to increase the probability of kill. The role of Battle-damage assessment (BDA) in such a setting is to make a judgment as to when further shots are actually necessary. BDA is not error-free. Probability models of the effect of battle damage assessment on shooting tactics are described and studied. Model results are presented to examine some features of tradeoffs between kill probability, PK, and the capacity of a hypothetical BDA system to correctly judge the effect of a shot.
NPS Report NumberNPS-OR-97-014
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