Quality of USMC officers: buildup vs. reduction in forces

Abstract

At the epicenter of maintaining the finest, most professional, and most feared military in the world is the quality of its leaders. The United States Marine Corps’ Officer Corps is the standard bearer, with an accession pipeline more rigorous than any in the Department of Defense. As is the historical norm, however, the U.S. military undertakes ambitious increases to end strength in the wake of a prolonged conflict. As a conflict fades, the increased end strength is no longer warranted. The typical approach during the drawdown is to reduce accessions, create stricter retention policies, and entice members to leave the service through voluntary measures. This research identifies the trade-off between quantity and quality necessitated by end-strength changes. Quantitative analysis using a difference-in-differences research design shows, relative to the buildup, officer quality increases during the drawdown. In particular, combat and non-combat occupations have a 0.0321 and 0.0834 point increase, respectively, in FITREP scores in the drawdown compared to the control group. Alternative measures and additional robustness checks support the hypothesis that the drawdown yields higher-quality officers. It is imperative to adapt force-shaping policies to a gradual approach to ensure the Marines retained during the buildup meet the quality standards of the drawdown.