System Dynamics Modeling for Improved Knowledge Value Assessment: A Proof of Concept Study

Abstract

Effective and efficient DoD acquisition programs require the analysis of a wide range of materiel alternatives. Diversity among alternatives, difficulties in selecting metrics and measuring performance, and other factors make the Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) difficult. The benefits of alternatives should be included in the AoA, but cost estimates dominate most AoA processes. Incorporating benefits into AoA is particularly difficult because of the intangible nature of many important benefits. The current work addresses the need to improve the use of benefits in AoA by building a system dynamics model of a military operation and integrating it with the Knowledge Value Added (KVA) methodology. The synergies may be able to significantly improve the accuracy of KVA estimates in the AoA process. A notional mobile weapon system was modeled and calibrated to reflect four weaponized Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV). Modeling a hypothetical AoA for upgrading one of the UAV indicated that there were potentially significant synergies that could increase the number of alternatives that could be analyzed, establishing common units of benefit estimates for an AoA, improved reliability of an AoA, and improved justification of AoA results. These can improve alternative selection, thereby improving final materiel effectiveness, thereby improving the DoD acquisition processes.